The Unknown Unknowns of Project Management
Unknown unknowns pose a threat to a project manager in more ways than simply affecting the project and the respected organization. The result of an unknown unknown realized during a project can test the project manager to their limits, affect their personal and professional growth, and prove to be a root cause of long term burn out. Even the most clear and concise project statement of work can have hidden risks that can derail momentum and will test your project leadership on how to strategize a beneficial outcome for the project.
Unknown Unknowns present themselves for the individual starting at the interview level. After you’ve read the Project Management job description, applied for the job, and received an invitation for the job interview, you should take your company research to one level further. Ask yourself, what is an aspect of this PM position that I may experience that I may not be taking into consideration? You may think you understand the qualifications listed in the posting, listened to the interviewer on what daily tasks would be required, and tried to ask as many questions as possible in the interview that would answer what a day in life would entail. However, an hour-long interview (or 2- or 3-hour long interviews) won’t give you the reality of what your “day in the life” may be a year from today. You may be dealing with a new, albeit difficult customer, a new material obsolescence issue, a company restructuring, a managerial realignment, multiple projects awarded that was outside of your forecast, to name a few. You might not be able to dive this deep in the interview but discussing the realities of the PM position with trusted colleagues, mentors, or friends might give you a deeper understanding about what you truly may experience years into the position.
As for the unknown unknown risks to the project, a seasoned PM will have the worst case always in the back of their mind, but the first year PM might not even consider what could go wrong. Being blind to potential risks is an open invitation for a project derailment. Examples of an unknown unknown risk to a project could include:
1.) Material not arriving to your facility due to a freak snowstorm causing your production line to stall and missing a contractual shipment.
2.) A mass illness spreading at your vendor’s location (or your own) causing them to shut down their facility for multiple days – We all remember COVID…
3.) A trusted vendor that has shipped hundreds of products without defects, now ships an entire project’s worth of material that is non-conforming.
How can the first year PM account for these types of risks? One possibility is to enhance your risk management tool and get input from the team on the risks you’ve accounted for along with suggestions for others that never occurred to you. Experienced team members are the best to discuss these situations since they’ve lived (and sometimes survived) through them. Some won’t even remember the specific project or the outcome, just the realized risks that derailed the project.
Once your risk tool is set with your known knowns (risks we are aware of potentially happening) and the known unknowns (risks we are aware of but don’t fully understand), setting aside management reserve out of your budget is a way to counteract the unknown unknowns especially depending on the size of the program. A 1% or 2% removal from your budget may be all you need and will allow you track costs through the program without touching this reserve. If no unknown risk was realized through the life of the project, you’ll be able to simply move that 1% or 2% back into profit.
Simply understanding that every project small or large dollar wise with varying duration poses unknown unknown risks. The first year PM won’t have the experience to account for what could happen, but with the right training and leadership from their manager or mentor, they can at least plan for the worse. There are even specific risk management certifications one can take to further their knowledge on how to mitigate risks, reallocate resources and budget, and create opportunities from your realized risks. Every solved risk during the present project is a lesson learned for future projects.